As brands are forced to re-evaluate media efficiency in the age of tariffs and the subsequent tightening of consumer spending, social platforms are being asked to do more than just provide a place to post. They are now required to drive performance, scale reach, and deliver measurable value under heavy constraints. While this may seem like an impossible situation, Kargo is here to help marketers navigate these uncharted waters.
Unsurprisingly, tariffs might be the biggest economic impact of 2025 and beyond, with nearly $10B of pullback anticipated to hit social ad spend alone, according to eMarketer. Because of this, there is a shift occurring in the market. With the focus now on short-term outcomes and scalability, brands are looking to paid social for definitive results that project growth YoY versus other branding initiatives that offer only an intangible media impact.
Due to its extensive history of driving last-click performance, Meta, in particular, seems poised to make the most of this allocation. Even so, each platform has its purpose, and as paid social marketers, we should remember the importance of all types of content, even those that drive lower click-based performance, like influencer and video-based ads.
With increased pressure to provide definitive results in this time of economic uncertainty, it’s important to not let the short-term pressure thwart the long-term strategy.
A reallocation of resources is expected to favor conversion-driving ad spend, but there is a unique opportunity within paid social to run upper-funnel tactics with conversion-contributing outcomes. Brand dollars can still be utilized for reach, conversions, and most importantly, retargeting audiences to use in lower-funnel conversion campaigns.
Lower-funnel campaigns alone deliver fast results but rarely scale. In contrast, Full-funnel social blends trackability with long-term efficiency. Smart buyers will use performance pressure as a reason to build better strategies, not narrower ones.
Even in a price-sensitive environment, consumers are making value-based choices. Reviews, trust, and perceived quality are driving conversions more than discounts alone with over half of US consumers saying reviews are the top factor influencing purchases on social media. Platforms like TikTok and Meta are increasingly where those perceptions are shaped and where buyers can influence intent before the click.
Advertisers that emphasize peer validation (e.g. reviews, influencer content) and highlight product quality in creative will outperform those leading with price alone.
Influencer budgets aren’t going away, but the shape of creator marketing is shifting. Sponsored content growth is slowing as brands look for more scalable applications. Options like the creator marketplace are popular, but even more popular are efforts that pair creators with paid ads or extending partnerships beyond social.
It’s important to remember with creators, video is the dominant creative and with that comes measurement validation that justifies video content. For advertisers not utilizing MTA or MMM, it can be hard to justify the cost of a lengthy partnership. For those in that category, we have tested Meta’s Catalog Partnerships alpha, which partners creator assets with existing catalog overlays in the same ads, and we are already seeing great results.
As Gen Z becomes the dominant driver of digital buyer growth in the coming years, TikTok’s influence in the discovery and research phase of the funnel is rising fast. While users might not convert in TikTok as often as Meta, incrementality studies have shown a considerable impact made by media spent on the platform.
Short-form video doesn't always convert on last-click, but it definitely shapes intent. That means view-through attribution and engagement-based measurement are essential for understanding TikTok’s role in acquisition strategy. Brands that treat TikTok like a last-click platform will miss its true value and potential.
With another late Thanksgiving on the calendar, brands that wait until Black Friday and Cyber Monday to scale will already be behind as they enter the crucial Holiday season. Consumers are buying earlier than ever before, with October 2024 seeing a 12% YoY spike in CVR but many advertisers didn’t show up to capitalize on this opportunity.
October presents a rare mix of rising consumer demand and light advertiser competition. Investing early not only captures lower-cost conversions, it builds audiences that can be reactivated efficiently during key moments in November and December. Media buyers should plan to ramp budgets in October, before the rush, not during it.
Physical retail continues to deliver bigger holiday lifts with in-store shopping behaviors shifting based on timing. Early in the season, shoppers tend to be more intentional, planning ahead to take advantage of promotions or simply getting a jump start on lengthy gift lists. As the season progresses, urgency and convenience take over, driving up last-minute in-store purchases during peak moments.
With pressure to intensify across platforms, we recommend testing Meta’s new omni-optimization to prioritize both offline and web performance and to ensure that your media strategy optimizes towards your best users, both online and in-store. This effort will allow brands to be prepared with acquisition and re-engagement plans well before peak season.
Every signal heading into H2 points toward the same tension that we’ve heard for years: do more with less. But the smartest media strategies won’t be about cutting, they’ll be about maximizing optimizations.
In paid social, pressure can either break strategy or refine it. The difference comes down to how early you adapt. Learn more.